Rugby World Cup Predictions - Week 3

Which game is the best predictor of real-world results?

We're well over half way into the pool matches of the World Cup, and we're starting to see some good matches, and a few upsets (take that, Australia!).

In an ongoing series of Features, we're putting both videogames - All Blacks Rugby Challenge and Rugby World Cup 2011 - to the test. We're running a series of predictions for the various Rugby World Cup matches, in which the two games make their best-guesses and we compare these to the real results.

Each game has a different set of options, menus, and functionality of course, so in order to ensure the matchup was as fair as it can be, we configured each game to use the closest set of options while diverging as little as possible from the out-of-the-box setup.

For Rugby World Cup 2011, this was as simple as firing up the World Cup competition and hitting go - we simulated every match, using whatever the default conditions, teams, and settings were.

It's a bit more complicated in Rugby Challenge, of course, as the game lacks the official license for the competition and is therefore unable to accurately replicate it in game. A quick trip to the editor, however, and we had reformed a new 20-team competition that follows the format of the real thing. All players, team stats, and other settings (etc) were whatever the default setup for the game is.

So how did each game fare in last week's batch of predictions?
This week things are going to get interesting, with the two videogames predicting varying results. As a reminder, we're looking for which game predicts the winner accurately, if they both predict the same team to win, it'll come down to points differential.

	Tonga	vs.	Canada
Real Result	20	-	25
Rugby World Cup 2011	7	-	12
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	32	-	21

	Scotland	vs.	Georgia	Point Spread
Real Result	15	-	6	9
Rugby World Cup 2011	50	-	0	50
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	29	-	10	19

	Samoa	vs.	Namibia	Point Spread
Real Result	49	-	12	37
Rugby World Cup 2011	61	-	8	53
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	43	-	18	25

	Russia	vs.	USA
Real Result	6	-	13
Rugby World Cup 2011	7	-	36
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	17	-	8

	New Zealand	vs.	Japan	Point Spread
Real Result	83	-	7	76
Rugby World Cup 2011	45	-	3	42
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	69	-	15	54

	Argentina	vs.	Romania	Point Spread
Real Result	43	-	8	35
Rugby World Cup 2011	83	-	7	76
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	43	-	15	28

	Australia	vs.	Ireland	Point Spread
Real Result	6	-	15	9
Rugby World Cup 2011	8	-	0	8
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	23	-	6	17

	South Africa	vs.	Fiji	Point Spread
Real Result	49	-	3	46
Rugby World Cup 2011	73	-	10	63
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	47	-	21	26

	France	vs.	Canada	Point Spread
Real Result	46	-	19	27
Rugby World Cup 2011	70	-	10	60
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	50	-	0	50

	England	vs.	Georgia	Point Spread
Real Result	41	-	10	31
Rugby World Cup 2011	79	-	3	76
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	51	-	10	41

	Wales	vs.	Samoa	Point Spread
Real Result	17	-	10	7
Rugby World Cup 2011	30	-	5	25
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	59	-	12	47

	Italy	vs.	Russia	Point Spread
Real Result	53	-	17	36
Rugby World Cup 2011	48	-	3	45
All Blacks Rugby Challenge	22	-	13	9

This week's winner? We're tied! The games predicted the results of six matches each. That brings our overall totals for 11 closer predictions for All Blacks Rugby Challenge to Rugby World Cup 2011's eight.


On to this week's predictions..
This week runs from today until next Tuesday (the 27th) - check out our match-by-match description and predictions...

Tonga vs. Japan

September 21st
This Pool A clash could be a close one. Not only have these two teams traded wins over their past 12 games played, both videogames also have different opinions on who'll be leaving Whangarei on top.

Tonga

7

-

31

Japan

 

Tonga

30

-

25

Japan

South Africa vs. Namibia

September 22nd
As much as we'd love to see the underdog pull off an upset, expect South Africa to put some serious points on the board against it's fellow African team.

South Africa

76

-

6

Namibia

 

South Africa

47

-

7

Namibia

Australia vs. USA

September 23rd
The Wallabies will be looking to redeem themselves after their upset loss to Ireland last week. Expect Australia to lift their game.

Australia

81

-

7

USA

 

Australia

56

-

10

USA

New Zealand vs. France

September 24th
This week's big clash. We don't need to go into the history between the sides to know that France is a thorn in our side. Can the All Blacks put on a decent showing to charge into the playoffs?

New Zealand

10

-

10

France

 

New Zealand

35

-

15

France

England vs. Romania

September 24th
This one is going to be hard-hitting, but in the end look for England to easily take the victory on this one.

England

64

-

8

Romania

 

England

40

-

7

Romania

Argentina vs. Scotland

September 25th
Both blue teams are coming of wins last week, with Argentina taking out Romania and Scotland defeating Georgia. This one should be close.

Argentina

45

-

36

Scotland

 

Argentina

40

-

28

Scotland

Ireland vs. Russia

September 25th
How good it must feel to be Irish right now. Ireland will be looking to put on a good showing against the Russians, who have yet to pick up any victories so far in the tournament.

Ireland

58

-

0

Russia

 

Ireland

41

-

12

Russia

Fiji vs. Samoa

September 25th
A clash of two pacific nations. Both will know each other's playing styles, both will have played each other many times before. Both teams have one win and one loss at the tournament.

Fiji

36

-

22

Samoa

 

Fiji

26

-

19

Samoa

Wales vs. Namibia

September 26th
After Namibia tested their luck against South Africa earlier this week, they'll be up against Wales. Expect this one to be fairly clinical with Wales grabbing the victory.

Wales

91

-

0

Namibia

 

Wales

63

-

9

Namibia

Canada vs. Japan

September 27th
The Maple Leafs take on the Cherry Blossoms in Napier. The videogames are split over which team will take the victory on this one, but in either case, it could be a close game.

Canada

22

-

8

Japan

 

Canada

9

-

10

Japan

Italy vs. USA

September 27th
USA could be a little fatigued after taking on Australia earlier this week. Expect them to still put up a good fight against the Italians though.

Italy

27

-

13

USA

 

Italy

39

-

8

USA

So, there you have it for week #3 of Rugby World Cup 2011. What are your predictions for these games?

Be sure to tune in next Wednesday to see how the next round goes!