Rugby World Cup Predictions - Week 1

Which game is the best predictor of real-world results?

The Rugby World Cup is nearly upon us, and both rugby games are now readily available. What better test, then, than to run a series of predictions for the various Rugby World Cup matches, in which the two games make their best-guesses and we compare these to the real results?

That's exactly what this article is about. We're teeing the two games off against each other to see which runs the better simulation. Each week we'll post the predictions and, once the results start rolling in, we'll give each game a score based on how well they did.

Each game has a different set of options, menus, and functionality of course, so in order to ensure the matchup was as fair as it can be, we configured each game to use the closest set of options while diverging as little as possible from the out-of-the-box setup.

For Rugby World Cup 2011, this was as simple as firing up the World Cup competition and hitting go - we simulated every match, using whatever the default conditions, teams, and settings were.

It's a bit more complicated in Rugby Challenge, of course, as the game lacks the official license for the competition and is therefore unable to accurately replicate it in game. A quick trip to the editor, however, and we had reformed a new 20-team competition that follows the format of the real thing. All players, team stats, and other settings (etc) were whatever the default setup for the game is.

This week runs from today until next Tuesday (the 13th) - check out our match-by-match description and predictions...

New Zealand vs. Tonga

September 9th
The opening match - if ever anything were to set the tone for a competition, this is it. Once the opening ceremony dies down, two proud South Pacific nations duke it out. The result of this one is surely in no doubt - there's no dissension from our two games, anyway. The winning margin in real life, in the three matches these sides have played before, has never been less than something like 80 points in favor of the All Blacks.

New Zealand

76

-

5

Tonga

 

New Zealand

55

-

3

Tonga

France vs. Japan

September 10th
Again, both games agree the basic outcome of this one - France are gonna win. Rugby World Cup 2011 is somewhat more in line with our predictions here at NZGamer.com - if anything, we think they'll win by more. All Blacks Rugby Challenge, suggesting just 16 points between the two sides, seems less likely to be on the button here we'd suggest.

France

38

-

7

Japan

 

France

37

-

21

Japan

Scotland vs. Romania

September 10th
Another no-brainer pick here; Scotland play rugby with the big boys, taking part in the Six Nations and squaring off with England directly in the Calcutta Cup. Romania, on the other hand? They're one of the stronger teams outside of the Six Nations, but their chances of going toe-to-toe with Scotland are slim.

Scotland

52

-

7

Romania

 

Scotland

40

-

10

Romania

Argentina vs. England

September 10th
Arguably the first marquee matchup of the tournament, this. We found that both games predicted a win to Argentina surprising - if there's one thing England knows, it's how to grind out a victory in these conditions. We're picking that both games will be wrong with this one.

Argentina

27

-

24

England

 

Argentina

27

-

22

England

Fiji vs. Namibia

September 10th
They might be the second-best team in Africa (to South Africa), but that doesn't mean they've got a chance here. Fiji will smash 'em, no question. But by how much? Our games have a 20 point spread here - which one do you agree with?

Fiji

61

-

10

Namibia

 

Fiji

46

-

15

Namibia

Australia vs. Italy

September 11th
Our first chance to see the Wallabies in action, outside of the recent Tri-Nations, but it's against Italy - hardly a powerhouse in world rugby. Quite a large gulf, again, however this time it's ABRC that's predicting the bigger thrashing.

Australia

31

-

7

Italy

 

Australia

55

-

10

Italy

Ireland vs. USA

September 11th
USA are the easy-beats of the competition in many ways, with their less-than-stellar history suggesting they'll finish somewhere near the bottom of their pool. Ireland, on the other hand, are a powerhouse side in Northern Hemisphere rugby, with their squad often making up a good number of the English & Irish Lions. The result of this one is in no doubt - the only thing up for debate is just how many points each side will get.

Ireland

59

-

10

USA

 

Ireland

48

-

7

USA

South Africa vs. Wales

September 11th
Wales are a decent side, no question - but they won't be able to topple the mighty Springboks, a prediction that both games (and all smart competition pundits) agree on. We personally think South Africa will do even better than RWC2011 suggests, putting on more points - even if they also leak a couple more as well.

South Africa

21

-

3

Wales

 

South Africa

25

-

14

Wales

So, there you have it for week #1 of Rugby World Cup 2011. What are your predictions for these games?

Be sure to tune in next Wednesday to see how the next round goes!